What I've Been Up To

Newer happenings listed first.

Thoughts on Our Uncertain Future / Feb. 17, 2010
As some readers of my site and Facebook friends know, I think of myself as a Global Warming and Peak Oil "doomer." That is, I expect major shake-ups in modern civilization within my lifetime due primarily (but not exclusively) to changing climatic conditions and the depletion of fossil fuels, both issues of our own making. The word "shake-ups" is a euphamism for the collapse of lifestyles and societal institutions that we currently take for granted. While I absolutely hope for a "way out" of this otherwise inevitable collapse through the timely, large-scale introduction of renewable energy and massive changes in infrastructure and lifestyle, I do not have much faith in societies' ability to "self-downshift," artificially cut consumption, and give up luxuries that have come to be perceived as necessities. I hope that I am wrong and that economic forces will act to soften the blow by encouraging gradual changes rather than abrupt ones, but an objective review of history provides little encouragement.

So what does this mean for me and my wife? What do we expect our life to be like, and how will we adapt to the changes that are very likely to come within the next few decades?

First, we will keep our material expectations very low and focus on happiness and experiences rather than on belongings. We have weaned ourself of many desires such as having a large (energy guzzling) home, a car or cars, and numerous belongings. Rather than thinking that "some day" we will really have it good, we tend to see ourselves never really having much more than we do now. Can I deal with that? Sure. It just takes a shift of focus from "having" to "being," from achieving wealth to achieving recognition. I think that simply modifying one's expectations and attitudes is about the most useful thing one can do to prepare for the possibility of a breakdown in modern industrial society.

Next, we will avoid debt and be very careful about our economic decisions. Lack of debt equals freedom, and freedom and mobility mean the chance to make carefully considered decisions about where and how to live. Debt means doing things in such a way as to be able to pay off the debt rather than living the life that you want. If we have debt, it will be much harder to make certain choices that are ecologically shrewd but involve a drop in income, such as making a timely decision to move to the countryside far away from a soon-to-collapse urban center.

I believe that in the future it will make a huge difference whether one has chosen to live in Phoenix or in rural Kentucky; today, thanks to oil-dependent infrastructure, people are able to temporarily forget about the ecological carrying capacity of the geographic region they live in. This will change. My best guess as to how many people will be living in Phoenix in 30 years is "100." If I turn out to be way off, it will only be due to massive changes in lifestyle. There may come a point when we will choose our place of residence by looking at geographic factors such as, "is it on a navigable river?" "is irrigation required for farming?" "how fertile is the soil?" and "what is the population density?" Today, our choices of location are primarily based on professional, financial, and social factors.

Next, we will continue to learn to cooperate closely with other people in the Slavic spirit rather than living in the western tradition of "every man is an island." 10 families who are each somewhat prepared for a collapse but cooperate closely with one another stand a better chance of survival than one family that has spent its whole life preparing but does it alone. Even more vulnerable is the lone individual who is not attached to others in any way. So, we will live with other people rather than living separately. We will learn useful skills from others and share our goods and experience with others. "It's better to have 100 friends than 100 rubles," the old Russian saying goes. We will do things like care for an elderly couple's garden plot in return for a free room in their house, rather than the more conventional route of simply renting a separate home. In general, we will look for ways to get things done through non-monetary arrangements. This is how people got by after the Soviet Union collapsed, and if you do a search on "Dmitri Orlov" you can read much more on how their experience might apply to us.

One thing we will put great emphasis on is obtaining skills that used to be highly valued and are sure to regain their value in the future as agricultural production relocalizes. This includes gardening skills, especially "permaculture," chicken farming, canning, using tools, and working with wood, fabrics, and other materials. And particularly home construction methods using primitive materials. Developing these skills will give us a lot of confidence in the face of industrial collapse. Furthermore, if we go to grad school, we will pursue degrees that will provide a lot of timeless and useful information and skills as a side effect. For instance, in physical geography I will learn a lot about soils, hydrology, and ecology. If we study in a place like Boulder, Colorado, we'll also be able to learn first-hand about the latest trends in low-carbon lifestyles, permaculture, and green tech. Other relevant skills are any skills that can be traded for important goods in a non-industrial society -- everything from basic medical skills and dentistry to alcohol distillation. And of course teaching, whether knowledge or trades. Music and dance are also timeless skills that are in demand at any level of wealth or poverty. Tradeable goods include all sorts of simple products from solar cookers to primitive forms of contraception.

We will also be very careful about our health -- our primary asset in life. No job is worth it if it promotes poor health. I might get corrective laser surgery on my eyes while such technology is still around. If we have more than one child, we will space them no less than 4 or 5 years apart to avoid overworking ourselves with more than one small child. We will probably refrain from having more than one child unless there is significant depopulation that doesn't affect us (another euphamism). In an oil-free world many parts of the globe will be able to sustain only a small portion of the population that lives there today.

For now, modern life continues to chug along and it is all too easy to forget about the increasing vulnerability of industrial civilization. So we'll preserve our mobility for the time being to take advantage of different opportunities. If or when things really start to get rough, it might be Ukraine or Argentina we decide to hunker down in, not the United States. We might not send our children, if any, to the public school system, since that type of education will probably be a waste of time in a deindustrializing world.

Hello, Ukraine / Feb. 17, 2010
Life in Ukraine is good. Surprisingly good. Within a few days of arriving we had found ourselves a room to rent in an apartment with another young couple, a bunch of English teaching opportunities for Kim, and the cheapest place in town to buy groceries. Our life now is closer now than it ever has been to how we ideally want to live. We like where we live, whom we live with, our 180 sq. foot room, what we have, what we eat, how we get around, and the people we meet. One's lifestyle can never be perfect, but ours is better than it has ever been during the time we've been together.

For the first time ever, we are enjoying a healthy diet not just a few days at a time, but week after week. Our monthly food expenses for following a Mediterranean-type diet meeting all the latest scientific requirements for long-term health are between $150 and $200 for the two of us. Add in our rent and monthly subway passes, and our budget for rent, utilities, food, and transportation is $400 for the two of us. Not only are we living where and how we want, but we are doing so at minimal expense.

Regarding my previous news update, Kiev is a Good Place for me. I have tons of opportunities here, lots of contacts, and even a few pretty good friends. I have felt much more engaged here than where we were in the U.S., where I suffered from social isolation. I have roots here and feel like a local. We have access to all that the city and country has to offer without having to buy a car. In fact, owning a car in Kiev is just plain silly (or vain) unless your job is to distribute goods. City infrastructure (housing and transportation) was designed to be efficient rather than to cater to the desires of the wealthy and wannabe rich. This means that it is much more cost-effective and appropriate to the needs of minimalists such as ourselves.

I have been rediscovering my Total Trainer workout machine, meeting with old friends, gradually bringing my Russian up to the level of fluency I enjoyed before my departure, and have been consistently more productive with my various projects than at any time during the past year and a half in the U.S. Kim enjoys it here and is still in awe of our low expenses and high quality of life. She would like to stay here for quite a while.

Goodbye, America / Jan. 8, 2010
It's been an interesting 1.5 years in America. Now, just 4 days before our departure for Ukraine, it's time to sum up the experience.

First on the list is the cause of me staying here in the first place, my companion Kim. While in America together we have gained a large enough base of shared experience to build our life together. We have gotten to know each other's families thoroughly by living with both and meeting the respective siblings and relatives -- an experience that many couples never get to have. Despite some initial awkwardness, we now both feel like part of the spouse's family. I have gotten to know my family better after living with my parents for four months and spending time with my siblings in Utah.

Also very significant are the common interests that Kim and I have developed during our time together in the U.S.. Now we have been on many hikes and backpacking trips together and intend to continue this tradition. We've both become even more interested in environmental issues and simple living. We've read or listened to many of the same books and discussed them at length. Our political views have grown more similar and are probably best summarized as "left-center green moderate social libertarian." Our diet, exercise, and lifestyle preferences have grown very similar, and it's clear that trying to implement these preferences will be an important theme in our lives for years to come.

Also of great importance were my two long-distance hikes in the U.S.: the first with Kim in Colorado, and the second alone for four months on the Pacific Crest Trail. The PCT in particular was a life-changing event, reshaping my views and interests for years to come and becoming a kind of new center of gravity in my life.

As a consequence of three factors while in the U.S. I became intensely interested in environmental issues, natural resource management, and the earth sciences. The reasons are 1) spending time with Kim, who is also interested in these things, 2) going on long hikes that heightened my interest in the natural world and gave me the opportunity to talk with other like-minded people, and 3) simply being in the U.S., where information on modern environmental issues is much more readily available and publicly discussed than in Ukraine, where public discussion focuses on politics and the economy. A look at my reading list will show how my interests have evolved while in the U.S.

Now for the negative parts. I have felt pretty socially isolated while in the U.S., despite being with Kim. I haven't had friends around (except for the PCT) or professional contacts to develop and utilize. American society and infrastructure make it a challenge to live a well-rounded life and be physically, socially, and mentally active. This was particularly true of the small towns in Michigan and Minnesota where I lived while not traveling. Furthermore, I was cut off from my professional contacts and interests that I had been developing in Ukraine and was thus less motivated to keep developing my existing projects. However, I did spend a lot of time reading and learning about new topics, such as climate change, new urbanism, alternative energy, biochar, permaculture, etc. etc.

It was also a bit rough to not be able to speak Russian for a year and a half and to be separated from that part of my life. I have not been in locations where I have been able to take much advantage of my language skills professionally or socially. On the other hand, my Spanish is now much better thanks to speaking it with Kim.

An important life lesson I have learned during the past year is the importance of choosing a Good Place to live:

• a place where we can do everything we want without a car thanks to compactness and proximity or excellent public transportation, both within town and to the outside world
• a place where I can make good use of my Russian language
• a place where we are minutes away from exercise opportunities and within easy range of wild areas to hike and camp
• a place with an active intellectual and social life where people don't just commute between work and home, but spend time in public areas and get together in formal and informal interest groups
• a place with inexpensive healthcare, either because we are automatically insured by school or employment, because of universal healthcare, or because healthcare costs are relatively low

Once we get to Ukraine and become ensconced there, I will look back at my time in the U.S. as a very positive experience. Although there were some difficulties that I hope to avoid in the future, I have learned and experienced a great deal of things that I think will be important for the rest of my life.